Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2023-04-24 Origin: Site
1.1 Wiring harness: the car's blood vessels + nerves, the importance of outstanding
Automotive wiring harness is the main body of the network of automotive circuits. Automotive wiring harness is mainly composed of wires, terminals, connectors and sheaths. The process is as follows: the cable is crimped to the contact terminal (connector) made of copper, and then the insulator is molded and pressed or a metal shell is added to form the component that connects the circuit with the wire harness. Automotive wiring harnesses are customized products, and the design and quality standards vary from OEM to OEM and from vehicle to vehicle. Wire harnesses are the carriers of energy and signals, connecting the central control components to the car's control unit, electronic and electrical actuators, and electrical components, forming the car's electronic control system, which is the vascular and nervous system of the car.
(1) According to the function, the wiring harness can be divided into power wire and signal wire: the power wire is thicker and mainly used for transmitting electric current; the signal wire is a copper multi-core soft wire, mainly used for transmitting electric signals. (2) According to the layout in the car, the harness can be divided into: body assembly harness, engine harness, instrument panel harness, chassis harness, roof harness, door harness, etc.
1.2 Wire harness industry concentration is high, the midstream cable certification barriers are high
Wire harness industry industry chain upstream and downstream relationship is relatively simple: midstream cable manufacturers to purchase copper and other metals for drawing, cable and other processes to make cables, downstream wire harness manufacturers will be connectors and cable crimping, bundling, etc., to form a wire harness. The downstream wiring harness industry is highly concentrated, and there is more room for domestic substitution. Automotive manufacturers, especially global automotive brands, usually implement high standards and strict requirements of supplier management, the supplier system is relatively closed. In 2020, the wiring harness industry CR3 is 70.9% and CR5 is 81.7%, with a high degree of concentration. With the rise of domestic brands, domestic OEMs are gradually switching suppliers to local brands, and there is more room for domestic substitution in the wiring harness industry.
The cables are automotive safety parts with high qualification barriers. Therefore, the vehicle manufacturers are more strict in the procurement of automotive cables, forming a more closed supply system. At present, there are mainly two types of automotive cable manufacturers: the first is the cable manufacturer under the harness company; the second is an independent company specializing in the production of cables. At present, Japanese wire harness manufacturers such as Yazaki, Sumitomo, Furukawa, European and American wire harness manufacturers such as Ampofo, Lenny, etc. are "self-produced + outsourcing" mode; American wire harness manufacturers Lear, German wire harness manufacturers Dekosmir, domestic wire harness manufacturers Hukou, Jinting, etc. are outsourcing mode.
In terms of cost splitting, the wiring harness requires higher labor costs. Wiring harnesses require different wiring designs for different models and different parts of the vehicle, so more manpower is required to bundle and process the harnesses. Therefore, the labor cost of wire harnesses is higher than that of the cable industry. According to the annual reports of HGL and CABEIYI for 2021, the direct labor cost of wire harnesses is 13.43%, while the direct labor cost of cables is only 1.43%.
From the perspective of raw material cost ratio, the main raw materials of wire harness are wire, sheath and terminal, and the highest percentage of copper in wire. According to the prospectus of HGL, the proportion of wire, sheath and terminal in the raw materials of wire harness is 32.54%, 20.53% and 19.90% respectively. The main raw materials of wire are copper rod and copper wire. According to the prospectus data of Kabeyi, the proportion of copper rod and copper wire in wire is 77.95% and 12.59% respectively.
2.1 Accelerated electrification trend and increased demand for high-voltage lines
Automotive cable products include conventional cables and special cables. Conventional cables include PVC low-voltage cables and cross-linked high-temperature cables: PVC low-voltage cables are commonly used in China's automotive cables, PVC as the cable insulation material, because of its lower cost and relatively easy processing is widely used; cross-linked high-temperature cables using insulation materials are mainly cross-linked polyethylene, which is a polyethylene containing organic peroxides, in the cable manufacturing process through electronic irradiation process, the polyethylene molecular arrangement structure from a parallel structure to a reticulated structure, so it has better resistance to high temperatures, abrasion and chemical corrosion and other characteristics. In the cable manufacturing process, after electron irradiation process, the molecular arrangement of polyethylene from a parallel structure to a mesh structure, making polyethylene more stable, so it has better resistance to high temperatures, abrasion and chemical corrosion resistance, etc., because of its better characteristics, the use of automotive is becoming more and more widespread. Special cables include aluminum cables, twisted pair cables, shielded cables, silicone rubber cables, multi-core sheath cables, coaxial cables, data transmission cables, charging cables, etc. Among the special cables, silicone rubber cables and charging cables are mainly used in new energy vehicles.
Demand for high-voltage cables is rising due to the trend of electrification. The high-voltage cables required for electric vehicles include power battery high-voltage cables, motor controller cables, fast-charging harnesses, slow-charging harnesses, and high-voltage accessory harnesses. The high-voltage wiring harness in new energy vehicles mainly provides high-voltage power supply to the vehicle, and is a high-security component in new energy vehicles, featuring large voltage/high current and large wire diameter wire quantity. High-voltage cable features: electric passenger car high-voltage cable withstand higher voltage (rated voltage up to 600V), higher current (rated current up to 600A), electromagnetic radiation is stronger, so the diameter of the cable is significantly increased, and coaxial structure should be used to resist electromagnetic interference.
High-voltage wires are more complex in structure and process. High-voltage wire consists of a secondary sheath (also called outer insulation), aluminum foil, shielding braid, inner insulation and core (conductor). Due to the characteristics of high-voltage cables, they have more insulation and shielding layers in their structure than low-voltage cables. High-voltage cables are also more complex than low-voltage cables due to the additional braiding and sheath extrusion processes.
Conventional cables are selected from PVC low-voltage cables, and special cables are selected from silicone rubber cables. Comparing the two processing processes, it is found that silicone rubber cables require multiple extrusion processes due to their more complex structures, and the number of insulation layers wrapped around them is more complex.
The role of high-voltage wire insulation layer: 1) insulation: to prevent the core wire from contact with other external conductors to produce a short circuit; 2) protection of the core wire; 3) IP protection: dustproof, waterproof, anti-touch; 4) to provide flexibility, easy to arrange on the body; 5) anti-scratch abrasion, flame retardant, etc. Special role in weather resistance and reliability. High-voltage cables require higher insulation layer material, silicone is the optimal solution. And low-voltage wire only the outer insulation layer is different, high-voltage wire has two layers of insulation inside and outside, the outer insulation layer is also often referred to as the secondary sheath. The inner and outer insulation layers are generally made of XLPO (cross-linked polyolefin), SIR (silicone rubber) and TPE (thermoplastic elastomer). The insulation materials required for high-voltage cables should meet the characteristics of high temperature, aging resistance, fracture resistance, and good flexibility. Silicone rubber has good heat resistance, small bending radius, small specific gravity, and excellent aging performance, which is the optimal solution for high-voltage cable insulation materials.
High-voltage cables require shielding to resist electromagnetic interference. Electric vehicle high-voltage cables are subjected to high voltage (rated voltage up to 600V) and high current (rated current up to 600A), which results in strong electromagnetic radiation. Electromagnetic interference is concentrated at the terminal crimps on both ends of the wires. High-voltage wire harness parts in the whole vehicle electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) test, need to meet the requirements of ISO 14572, transfer impedance ≤ 31mΩ / m, shielding attenuation ≥ 70dB, to meet the EMC requirements of the whole vehicle. The shielding layer of high-voltage cable is divided into shielding wire braid layer and aluminum foil layer, and the process is complicated.
2.2 The wave of intelligence has arrived, high-speed data lines to meet new opportunities
Intelligent upgrade, the amount of automotive sensors is expected to increase. With the gradual popularization of vehicle intelligence and the upgrade of assisted driving functions from L1 to L3 and L4 levels, the number of sensors required for vehicles is expected to increase. The Aquila Ultra Sensing System, for example, has 33 high-performance sensing hardware, including one ultra-long-range high-precision laser radar, seven 8-megapixel high-definition cameras, four 3-megapixel high-sensitivity surround-view cameras, one enhanced driver sensing, five millimeter-wave radars, 12 ultrasonic sensors, two high-precision positioning units and V2X vehicle-road collaboration. The integrated perception defines a new standard of autonomous driving perception system for mass production vehicles.
The data transfer speeds required for in-vehicle networks have increased. As in-vehicle networks began to connect more in-vehicle computing resources, Ethernet emerged, and in 2016, IEEE released the first automotive Ethernet standard, IEEE 802.3bw, or 100Base-T1. While 100M bit/s bandwidth is comparable to 100Base-TX, introduced in 1995, there are still key differences in the automotive version. With the increased transmission speed, coaxial cables are mostly used for automotive network connections because of their high bandwidth capability.
The increase in the number of sensors in vehicles will significantly boost the demand for data cables. Automotive cables used for data transmission are mainly unshielded twisted pair cables, star twisted pair cables, coaxial cables, etc. They can be used for sensors, displays, cameras, ultrasonic radar, millimeter wave radar, Ethernet transmission, etc.
2.3 Lightweight trend of aluminum to replace copper, the cost side is expected to reduce
Automotive wiring harnesses are used more and account for a higher weight of the car. Wire harnesses in conventional cars are mostly copper alloy wires, and the weight of automotive wire harnesses accounts for about 1~2% of the weight of the car. According to the electronic engineering world network data, a senior car wiring harness use about 2km, the weight of 20 ~ 30kg. every 100km car, 25kg heavy wiring harness energy consumption of about 50W, equivalent to the burning of 0.1kg of fuel. Research shows that if the weight of the car is reduced by 10%, fuel consumption can be reduced by 8%; if the weight of the car is reduced by 100kg, fuel consumption can be reduced by 0.3~0.6L per 100km and CO2 emissions can be reduced by about 5g/km. In the wiring harness, cables account for about 75% of the total weight of the harness, so if we want to achieve light weight, we need to start with cables.
The automotive wiring harness lightweighting solution mainly includes material lightweighting, structure optimization and layout optimization. 1) material lightweighting: aluminum conductors have similar electrical conductivity to copper and are lighter in weight, so aluminum conductors have been used to replace some copper conductors; 2) structure optimization: copper conductors with smaller cross-sectional areas are used to replace larger cross-sectional copper conductors; 3) layout optimization: the layout of the automotive electrical and electronic architecture is optimized to reduce the amount of wiring harnesses used.
Aluminum is expected to replace copper under the trend of lightweighting. Aluminum is two-thirds lighter in density compared to copper, and aluminum is a construction material in abundant supply. Unlike copper, which has limited available resources, aluminum is not a speculative metal, and its price is relatively stable and lower than that of copper. The specific properties of copper are good electrical and thermal conductivity, high chemical stability, good corrosion resistance, good mechanical properties, good plasticity of copper is easy to process; aluminum is less conductive than copper, about 60% of copper, easy to oxidize to generate oxide film, aluminum metal density is small, cheap, reliable sources, but as a conductive material low tensile strength, poor weldability. Overall: aluminum is less dense and cheaper than copper, but the mechanical properties are poor, easy to oxidize, and the crimping process is difficult.
Crimping is an effective and reliable method of connecting electrical conductors. Crimping process through the mold and crimping equipment to connect the terminal, wire, and hydrant to produce a semi-finished product, crimping process determines the mechanical properties of the terminal and wire connection and conductive properties. Aluminum crimping difficulties: 1) aluminum alloy under mechanical load from about 80 ° C shows an increasing creep trend, while in copper, this phenomenon occurs only at temperatures higher than 230 ° C; 2) aluminum is a ductile metal, with significant bending sensitivity. The mechanical strength of aluminum is only one-third that of copper; 3) aluminum forms a dense and extremely hard oxide layer.
TE connectivity has developed the LITEALUM crimp barrel for contacting aluminum conductors: The LITEALUM barrel has sharp serrations on the inside that break down the oxide layer during the crimping operation, exposing the pure aluminum underneath and allowing electrical contact to be established by local cold welding; the inherent ductility of aluminum is purposefully utilized during the crimping process.
Tesla Model 3 has adopted aluminum wire, which is expected to lead the wiring harness industry change. The main components of Tesla's high-voltage system are: 1) air conditioning compressor, 2) cabin heater, 3) power battery, 4) PCS power conversion system, 5) rear drive axle, and 6) charging harness assembly. The aluminum wires are used in the charging harness section and are placed in a plastic skin with a temperature resistance of over 180°C, shielded by copper mesh and aluminum foil. We believe that Tesla's use of aluminum conductors is expected to lead the acceleration of the change in the lightweighting of automotive wiring harnesses, and in this trend, the replacement of copper by aluminum is expected to reduce the cost of cables at the raw material end.
3.1 2025 new energy vehicle wiring harness market of about 50 billion yuan, CAGR of 29.8%
The high-voltage harness is a new requirement, with a unit value of around 300 euros. Low-voltage harnesses are worth about €400 per vehicle. Different types of harnesses are used for different types of vehicles, with the most types of high-voltage wires needed for purely electric models, which have the highest value per vehicle, around 620-900 euros.
The wiring harness technology for new energy vehicles has improved significantly, and the value of a single vehicle has increased significantly. According to EV WIRE data, the average value of new energy vehicle wiring harness is around RMB 5,000 per vehicle, of which the value of high-voltage wiring harness system is about RMB 2,500 per vehicle, while the value of traditional passenger car wiring harness varies from RMB 2,500, 3,500 and 4,500 per vehicle, depending on the model grade.
We expect the wiring harness market size to reach 90 billion yuan by 2025, including 50 billion yuan for new energy vehicles, with a CAGR of 29.8% for the new energy vehicle harness market. According to the CCA data, by 2025, automobile sales are expected to reach 30 million units, of which 10 million units of new energy vehicles. We expect the new energy vehicle wiring harness market to be about 50 billion yuan in 2025, and according to the split of low-voltage and high-voltage wiring harnesses, we expect the market size of high-voltage wiring harness to be 25 billion yuan and low-voltage wiring harness to be 65 billion yuan in 2025.
3.2 New energy vehicle cable market is expected to reach 15 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 40.3%
High-voltage cables have a higher value because they are more complex and require more insulation and shielding layers. In terms of unit price, the unit price of special cables is higher than that of conventional cables because they require more materials and have more complex processing. In the case of higher unit price, the gross margin level of special cables is significantly higher than that of conventional cables. According to the prospectus data of Cabeye Yi, in 2020, the value of traditional automotive cables per vehicle is about 500 yuan, and the value of new energy automotive cables per vehicle can reach 1000 yuan.
We expect the cable market size to be 24 billion yuan by 2025, of which the new energy vehicle cable market size is 15 billion yuan. The value of new energy vehicle cables per vehicle is higher than that of traditional vehicles, and as the penetration rate of intelligent network connection increases, the value of new energy vehicle cables per vehicle will increase year by year, and we expect the value of new energy vehicle cables per vehicle to reach 1500 yuan in 2025. According to the data of the China Automobile Association, the sales of automobiles are expected to reach 30 million units by 2025, including 10 million units of new energy vehicles. We expect the market size of new energy vehicle cables to be 15 billion yuan by 2025, with a CAGR of 40.3%.
4.1 Matching mode change, gradually break the foreign monopoly
The domestic supporting mode to parallel supporting and tower supporting development. The main modes of cooperation between auto OEMs and parts suppliers include the parallel matching mode represented by European and American auto enterprises, the tower development mode represented by Japanese and Korean auto enterprises, and the vertical integration mode represented by some large state-owned auto enterprises in China. In the parallel supporting mode, auto parts enterprises and vehicle enterprises are oriented to the society and realize the global procurement market operation; the tower development mode is a pyramid-shaped multi-level supporting supply system with vehicle manufacturers as the core and parts suppliers as the support, under this mode, auto parts enterprises and vehicle enterprises have a closer cooperation relationship; the vertical integration mode means that vehicle enterprises produce both vehicles and a certain number of The vertically integrated model means that the vehicle manufacturer produces both the vehicle and a certain number of auto parts. At present, the global automotive industry is gradually evolving in the direction of leaner production, externalization of non-core business, globalization of industry chain configuration, and streamlining of management organizations. As a result, domestic vehicle manufacturers are gradually shifting from a vertically integrated model to a parallel-assembly model and a tower development model.
Parts and vehicle company supporting method：
Source：HGL Prospectus；Cinda Securities R&D Center
The wiring harness industry is mainly monopolized by foreign and joint venture manufacturers, forming a situation of oligopoly competition in the wiring harness industry. The main foreign enterprises are Japanese Yazaki, Sumitomo, Furukawa; German Lenny, De Kosmir, Kropp; American Lear, Ampofo, etc.
The main barriers to entry in the wiring harness industry: 1) supplier qualification barriers: wiring harness companies want to enter the supporting system of automotive enterprises, need to pass a series of certification processes such as quality management system, which generally takes 1-3 years to complete; 2) technical barriers: automotive wiring harnesses have high requirements for product research and development, production processes, quality control, etc.; 3) financial barriers: automotive wiring harnesses need to purchase and build a sufficient amount of plant and advanced high-end equipment to meet product capacity, quality and other requirements. (4) Management Barriers: The production of automotive wire harnesses is characterized by multiple varieties, small lots, multiple batches, and large scale, etc. Under the above characteristics, wire harness companies need to strengthen comprehensive management and improve operational efficiency in raw material procurement, production and processing, and market development.
4.2 Major foreign wire harness companies
4.2.1 Yazaki
Founded in 1941, Yazaki has been manufacturing wire assemblies for automobiles, various meters, instruments, air conditioners, solar heaters and other products for more than 80 years. As of 2020, the Yazaki Group has more than 140 companies worldwide and employs more than 200,000 people worldwide. The Yazaki Group classifies wire harness transmission systems into four categories: "information network," "body network," "driving network," and "power management. "The Yazaki Group designs products to meet customer requirements in four categories. These four types of networks are connected through gateways to enable communication between networks.
Ltd. was established in Shanghai in 2006. The company is mainly engaged in the development, design and sales of automotive wiring harnesses, instrumentation and automotive components, as well as the overall management of Yazaki's factories throughout China. Yazaki's customers are mainly Japanese, European, American and Chinese OEMs, and the company continues to innovate and improve its development capabilities to provide high quality services to customers worldwide.
4.2.2 LEONI
LEONI is one of the world's leading suppliers of electrical cables and wiring harness systems. The LEONI Group has extensive experience in the field of automotive wiring harnesses for internationally renowned vehicle manufacturers such as Chrysler, Audi, Porsche and BMW Germany. At the end of 2021, LEONI has 72 subsidiaries in 28 countries in Asia, America and EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa). The Wire Harness Systems division consists of 3 domestic companies and 30 foreign companies, 6 in Asia, 7 in the Americas and 17 in EMEA. The Wire & Cable Solutions division consists of 14 domestic and 19 foreign companies, of which 4 are in Asia, 6 in the Americas and 9 in the EMEA region. In addition, the two divisions have six subsidiaries.
LEONI entered China in the early 1990s and has been growing steadily and rapidly. As of the end of 2021, LEONI has subsidiaries in Changzhou, Shanghai, Tieling, Jining and Penglai, each covering businesses such as automotive cable solutions, wiring harness systems and electrical equipment.
4.2.3 Amphenol
Amphenol is a global manufacturer of automotive components. It provides electrical and electronic architectures, powertrain systems, safeties and thermal process solutions for the global automotive and commercial vehicle markets, with major customers such as General Motors, Ford and Volkswagen.
4.3 Major domestic wire harness companies
The local procurement of auto parts has been strengthened and independent suppliers have emerged. With the gradual development of domestic automobile enterprises and international automobile manufacturers attaching more and more importance to cost control, the local procurement of auto parts is increasingly strengthened, and a number of local auto wire harness suppliers have emerged in China, which enter the supply system of automobile manufacturers with timely logistics and reliable product quality. At present, there are some large local wire harness enterprises such as Kunshan Higuang, Shanghai Jinting and Liuzhou Shuangfei.
At present, the competition in China's automotive wiring harness industry is relatively fragmented and not highly concentrated. Only a few harness manufacturers, such as Shanghai Jinting, Liuzhou Shuangfei and Kunshan Higuang, are able to enter the joint venture automotive supplier system by virtue of their strict product quality. However, from the perspective of each company's market share in 2020, the share is small, accounting for only about 2%-4% of the wiring harness market share.
Local procurement is increasingly strengthened, there are independent manufacturers of high-voltage lines into the joint venture system, the process of domestic substitution is expected to accelerate. The wiring harness industry is highly dependent on the automotive industry, German, Japanese cars and other OEMs are more stringent assessment of parts suppliers, so most of the foreign-owned OEMs have formed a more closed wiring harness supporting system. However, in recent years, international OEMs pay more and more attention to cost control, localized procurement of auto parts is increasingly strengthened, and a number of excellent domestic parts suppliers have emerged. Domestic wiring harness autonomous suppliers such as Kunshan Higuang, Shanghai Jinting, etc. have entered the joint venture brand of low-voltage vehicle harness and small harness supply system. Although most of the high-voltage harnesses with high technical requirements are still supplied by foreign investors, but there are independent suppliers to enter the process of domestic substitution is expected to accelerate.
5.1 HGL: High quality wiring harness supplier, continued breakthrough in high voltage wiring harness orders
We are the leading company of domestic automotive wiring harness. Founded in 1997, the company focuses on the research, development and production of automotive high- and low-voltage wire harness assemblies. After years of development, relying on the leading intelligent manufacturing level and solid R&D and design strength, the company has been recognized by domestic and international mainstream vehicle manufacturers.
The company's products are comprehensive, covering fuel vehicle harnesses and new energy high-voltage harnesses. The company's products mainly include complete harnesses, engine harnesses, high voltage harnesses and other harnesses. 72.9% of the company's complete harnesses and 4.5% of the engine harnesses will be contracted in 2021.
The company has a high quality customer structure, with the world's mainstream OEMs as the main customers. The company has established stable cooperation relationship with domestic and foreign famous OEMs such as Volkswagen, Daimler Benz, General Motors, and domestic new power customers. In 2021, the company has been awarded the contracts of high and low voltage wiring harnesses for Jin Kang New Energy - M5, M5 EV and M7; the projects of high voltage wiring harnesses for RISO X02 and VW316/8 for VW Anhui; and the project of low voltage wiring harnesses for battery packs for Daimler Benz MMA platform. In 2021, the company has achieved mass production of high-voltage wire harnesses for SAIC VW MEB platform ID3, ID6X, Audi Q5E, Chery Jaguar Land Rover Discovery Sport and Beijing Benz EQA.
5.2 NB-KBE: automotive cable leader, new energy business continues to release volume
Professional automotive cable supplier with high quality customer structure. The company has been dedicated to the research and development, production and service of automotive cables for more than 30 years since its establishment. The company's main business is conventional cables, but in recent years the main business has expanded from conventional cables to new energy cable business, and the company's new energy cable ratio shows a trend of year-on-year increase, from 7.8% in 2016 to 12.6% in 2021. In recent years, the company has solidly developed its main business and its revenue has been growing steadily, with a compound growth rate of 26.4% from 2016 to 2021.
Our end customers include VW, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, GM, Ford, Volvo, Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Rongwei, Geely, Tesla and other OEMs; our direct customers are leading wire harness companies such as Yazaki and Amphenol.
NB-KBE continues to expand its new energy business, and its performance is expected to resonate with the sales volume of major customers. In the field of new energy vehicles, the company has obtained high-voltage cable certification from many OEMs, including GM, Honda, Nissan, SAIC Datsun and Geely, and has supplied automotive cables related to new energy vehicles to VW, Nissan, GM, Honda, SAIC Datsun, Geely, Tesla and other manufacturers. The company continues to promote new energy business, sales are expected to continue to increase.
